2012 Presidential Election Forecast

In the past, I’ve made projections based on my own estimates from years of studying American politics and working on political causes and campaigns and I have a decent track record, though I tend to overestimate the wins. That said, because I’ve covered this year’s campaign more than any other presidential election since 2000, here is my forecast: Romney to win 287 electoral votes to Obama’s 251. I expect the entire Northeast and West Coast to go for Obama, most of the South, Mountain and Plains states to go for Romney, and the following breakdown of battleground states: Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida for Romney; Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado for Obama. I’m projecting more cautiously this time, though I am inclined to forecast a bigger win for Romney in which he also takes Michigan and Pennsylvania and the rest of the Midwest, but with histories of electing welfare state politicians such as Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and John Culver, it is hard to peg them as defying Obama and there is no underestimating that the welfare state has led to an entitlement class of people dependent on government programs in all 50 states, so I could be wrong. My best scenario for Obama puts him over the necessary 270 votes with 342 versus Romney’s 196 – that gives Obama all the swing states – and my best scenario for Romney, which I’d like to think is more likely, is 355 to Obama’s 183. I’ll stick to Romney: 287 to Obama: 251. In either case, I will brace for impact because, no matter who wins, the nation faces real, serious economic collapse and military defense. I will be thoroughly disgusted with Americans if Obama wins. If Romney wins, I will be thoroughly realistic with low expectations and prepared for another lousy presidency – one that does not destroy the United States of America quite as quickly and decisively. If Romney wins big, Republicans may take control of both the House and the Senate. But I am projecting a solid yet smaller margin of victory over four more years of Obama. Today is Election Day. Let’s roll.

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